Covid-19 and the global industry

A snapshot of the current trend

The world has been struggling against the pandemic for months now: many countries failed to contain the spread of the virus, while others are already facing new waves.

As reported by WHO, a total of 25,602,665 confirmed cases of Covid-19 have been recorded worldwide, with 852,758 deaths.

Last week, India, the United States, Brazil, and Mexico experienced the highest number of victims, each with more than 3000 deaths in 7 days.
When it comes to Europe, the situation is still quite serious in Spain (with a total of 29,152 deaths, of which 155 in the last week) and in France, where there have been a total of 30,517 fatalities with 106 new deaths in the last 7 days, to the extent that President Macron has not ruled out the possibility of a new lockdown. In the United Kingdom, the deaths have exceeded 41,000, with 55 fatalities in the last week. In Italy, the victims in the same period of time were 46. The situation is better in Germany, with 9,313 deaths to date (33 in the last 7 days). Russia, which to date has totaled “only” (so to speak) more than 17 thousand cases, saw 731 countrymen die over the last week.
Taking a look outside of the European continent, more than 7800 people in Southeast Asia, more than 1400 throughout Africa, and almost 100 in Japan passed away because of Covid-19 in the last week.

Latest update: September 3, 2020.

The outlook for the industrial sectors and the business world as a whole is still deeply uncertain. Containment measures were crucial in order to limit the spread of the coronavirus, yet they have severely damaged the world economy, putting many companies in a very precarious situation. According to a study by the International Monetary Fund, the impact of the restrictions on the IP of the State in which they were implemented is equivalent on average to a loss of 15% in the 30 days following their enactment.

These figures emerged from a comparison between the emissions of NO2, a substance released by fuel combustion, and the IP indexes of 38 different countries between January 2019 and April 2020.

As far as Europe is concerned, we can see some signs of recovery, which may help restore some confidence. According to a recent Eurostat publication, the industrial production after the slump at the beginning of 2020 increased by 11.4% per month in May and 9.1% in June in EU or Eurozone member states.

This figure positively reflects some recent considerations by CRU analysts, which highlight the unusual nature of this crisis — which is not financial, as many ones have previously been, but has its roots in a pandemic.
It is known that the COVID emergency has mainly affected the consumer service sectors (excluding the web), which are suffering the most because of the restrictions and social distancing, and has had a lesser impact on the manufacturing and construction industry. The automotive sector deserves a separate mention, as it was already on a weak footing in 2019 and saw a further weakening in demand, especially for personal vehicles.

In the second half of the year, international trade is likely to remain below last year's levels. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects the decline in international trade to be approx. 20 percent for the year 2020. The World Trade Organisation talks about a decline between 13 and 32 percent. For the year 2021, WTO projections indicate a growth in the volume of trade in goods between 5 and 20%, depending on the pace of economic recovery. 

An interesting map recently published by Visual Capitalist and New York Life Investments shows the macroeconomic risk of 241 countries and regions. Results are based on political risk, structural business environment, commercial risk, and financing risk. Might be worth a look.



Beyond the dramatic death toll and the severe economic downturn, the Covid-19 crisis – oddly enough – has also introduced beneficial changes, especially in terms of digital revolution. Just think of the significant boost to the Industry 4.0 implementation for remote control and maintenance, the large-scale spread of agile working, and the increased relevance of green policies. Among countless elements of concern and anxiety brought by the COVID emergency, we can see glimpses of the future here and there.

Waiting to know what tomorrow will bring, and hoping to have a vaccine available as soon as possible on a global scale, the industry is rolling up its sleeves, with renewed commitment and dedication.