Copper usage keeps growing. Do we have enough of it?
Concerns regarding copper availability and sustainability over the mid-long term
Among the resources available on Planet Earth, copper is one of the most common yet most valuable raw materials. In this article, starting from an analysis of visualcapitalist.com, we will explore the role copper will play in the way towards a sustainable future.
Aesthetic appeal, excellent conductivity, high-pressure resistance, energy efficiency, and versatility make copper the top choice for a plethora of applications. From construction (roofing, tubing) and infrastructure (power generation, distribution and consumption) to transportation (trains, buses) and healthcare (antimicrobial touch surfaces) to domestic appliances and everyday technology, and more. Copper fuels our modern lifestyle and is becoming more and more critical for urbanization and economic development.
The production of mined copper has increased dramatically over the last two decades. From 9.8 million metric tons in 1995 to 20 million metric tons in 2019, we are talking about a whopping 104% rise over 25 years. And this trend is set to continue. The Copper Alliance has projected an increase of 50% in just the next 20 years, but why is it so?
What’s driving the copper demand?
One of the main drivers of copper demand is the renewable energy industry. According to McKinsey, by 2050, 73% of global power generation will come from sustainable sources: copper will play a crucial role in this transition as it is widely used as the primary material for cabling and heat exchange.
Another key driver of copper demand is automotive, and more specifically electric on-road vehicles. The Copper Development Association estimates that by 2030 more than 250,000 tonnes of copper will be needed per year for the manufacture of electric traction motors. And even more to produce car batteries, as well as wiring and charging stations.
However, such an extensive use of copper does raise concerns regarding its availability and sustainability over the mid-long term. After all, as we move towards the future, more copper than ever will be used. And we all know that despite copper’s apparent abundance, we are doomed to run out of raw materials - eventually.
So, will we run out of copper?
Well, the short answer is not so soon. Let’s try and see why.
According to the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey), above-ground copper resources amount to 2.1 billion metric tons, with many copper deposits still undiscovered (about 3.5 billion metric tons). If we consider current production rates, it would take about 105 years to consume all of it, and this does not account for copper 100% recyclability and discovery of new copper mines. Nearly all the 700 million metric tons of mined copper is still in circulation!
With this in mind, we can safely say that, despite copper's growing popularity and increase in usage, it is highly unlikely we will run out of it for the time being. Mind you, this is not to say that we can completely push the availability issue out of the equation. That being said, there is a fine line between humanity’s material impact and health of the planet. Finding the right balance between these two diametrically opposed factors is key to building a sustainable future for the next generations.
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