Global steel demand set to rebound 1.3% in 2026 after flat 2025
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), forecasting that global steel demand will remain essentially unchanged in 2025 at around 1,750 million tonnes (Mt), before rebounding by 1.3% to reach 1,773 Mt in 2026.
According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of worldsteel’s Economics Committee, the industry is expected to bottom out in 2025 and move toward moderate growth in 2026, supported by public infrastructure investment and improving financing conditions. However, ongoing trade tensions and high production costs continue to weigh on the outlook.
Regional trends shaping the recovery
The 2026 rebound will be driven by diverging regional dynamics. China’s steel demand is expected to decline by 2% in 2025 and a further 1% in 2026, reflecting continued weakness in the housing sector. In contrast, developing economies excluding China are projected to post solid gains — 3.4% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 — led by India, ASEAN, and MENA countries.
India stands out with projected growth of around 9% over 2025–2026, driven by strength across all steel-using sectors. By 2026, India’s steel demand will be nearly 75 Mt higher than in 2020. Africa also continues its recovery, with demand rising to about 41 Mt in 2025, reflecting annual growth of 5.5% since 2023, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and diversification policies.
In the Americas, Central and South America are expected to record a 5.5% increase in steel demand in 2025, driven by a sharp recovery in Argentina and steady construction growth in Brazil. Nevertheless, total demand will remain below 2013 levels, highlighting long-term deindustrialisation trends.
Outlook for advanced economies
The so-called developed world is forecast to see another mild contraction in 2025, with demand down 0.5%, before rebounding by 1.5% in 2026. Europe’s steel demand is expected to return to growth, rising 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026 on the back of infrastructure and defence spending, easing inflation, and stronger household income.
In the United States, demand is expected to increase by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by infrastructure projects, private investment, and potential stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Japan and Korea are projected to experience subdued steel demand throughout the forecast period.
Despite persistent risks — from trade disputes to geopolitical uncertainty — worldsteel remains cautiously optimistic that the worst of the slowdown is behind the global steel industry.
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Picture by: worldsteel
