worldsteel Short Range Outlook

  The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released on April 27 its April 2012 Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2012 and 2013. worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 3.6% to 1,422 Mt in 2012, following growth of 5.6% in 2011. In 2013, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow further by 4.5% to around 1,486 Mt.
    Commenting, Hans Juergen Kerkhoff, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said, "Despite the market weakening in the fourth quarter of 2011, world steel demand achieved solid growth of 5.6% in 2011 due to the recovery momentum seen in the first half of the year. Though we saw a series of negative events in 2011 (including Japan's earthquake, political turmoil in MENA and flooding in Thailand), their impact proved to be contained mostly locally. The exception was the euro zone debt crisis which did have global impact and is the main cause behind the deterioration in this new forecast from our previous one issued in October 2011. Signs of stability are now emerging and we expect the recovery to resume in the second half of this year, leading to a higher growth forecast for 2013.
    Although the global impact of the euro zone debt crisis has been limited so far, uncertainties continue to exist and this remains the key downside risk to our current outlook. High oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the oil producing regions are also important downside risk factors. The possibility of a hard landing for the Chinese economy cannot be ignored but at this point we do not attach high probability to this.  It should be noted that the most important development in our revised forecast is the continuing slowdown of Chinese steel demand driven by the Chinese government's efforts to restructure the economy. However, part of China's projected slower growth is offset by improvement in other emerging markets and the strengthening recovery of the US."

Click here to read more.